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Dr. Mark Wentzel – Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board 

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at how the recent El Niño winter impacted water conditions across our state.

First, a recap on what is meant by El Niño conditions. El Niño conditions are associated with above-average sea surface temperatures that periodically occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. These conditions set up atmospheric circulation patterns that tend to bring cooler and wetter-than-normal winters to Texas, which can really benefit our surface water supply reservoirs.

Are you disappointed in what the 2023-24 winter El Niño event has brought to your area? Your answer probably depends on where you live. If you live in the Trinity River Basin or one of the other river basins in our state to the northeast, this El Niño event has probably met your expectations.

This chart showing combined surface water storage for reservoirs in the Trinity Basin by day of the calendar year starting in August shows why. The black lines on the chart show minimum, median, and maximum storage values from data going back to 1990. The blue line shows how storage fared during 2018-19, and the orange line shows values during 2014-15. These are the two most recent El Niño winters and show how different impacts can be. The 2018-19 event brought a big increase in water supplies at the very beginning of fall. In 2014-15, supplies didn't bounce back to normal until late May. The red line on this chart shows storage during the current El Niño event that began last year and is now beginning to dissipate. After the summer of 2023, combined storage in this basin reached about 12 percentage points less than normal by mid-October but quickly bounced back to near normal by mid-November. Thank you, El Niño.

If you live in the Brazos Basin near the center of the state, you're probably also pretty pleased. Here's the chart for combined storage in that basin. After being about 20 percentage points lower than normal in late October, things definitely improved this winter. You're not quite back to normal yet, but with the wettest month of the year, May, still to come, it certainly appears that reservoirs in your basin have a good chance to be back to normal before summer hits.

But if you live in the Colorado Basin or one of the other river basins in our state to the southwest, this El Niño event has definitely underperformed. In this basin, combined reservoir storage hasn't improved since last fall. And as we finish April, it still remains about 25 percentage points below normal. Yes, May is still coming, and we did get late recovery during the 2014-15 event, but it's looking more and more like this basin is going to go through the summer of 2024 with supplies lower than normal.

What can we expect over the next few months? Here's the latest seasonal drought outlook from the National Weather Service for conditions through the end of July. Based on these projections, it looks like the Brazos and other river basins to the northeast are likely to see normal to above-normal water supply conditions this summer. In the Colorado and other basins to the southwest, supplies are probably going to continue to be lower than normal. But do remember to check with your local water provider for the best information about conditions in your area. That concludes our report. Until next time, no matter where you live, I hope you all stay healthy and safe and conserve as much water as you can.